This is probably a good time to remind readers that every grocery store is different, price-wise. Even within a chain. The reminder comes because my store had some nice price drops for this month’s shopping trip, but that doesn’t mean it’s indicative of prices falling everywhere.
Overall, prices are still up significantly from where they were a year ago.
My grocery bill was down 3.08% this month from last month, with price drops in for tomoatoes, oranges, chocolate and dishwasher detergent. I checked last June’s Snapshot, and dishwasher detergent, usually stable, had a big price drop as well. It must be my store’s way to usher in summer.
My Snapshot grocery bill is still 4.03% higher than it was when I began keeping track, in April 2025. Of 26 items, 12 have higher prices than they did in April 2025; seven have lower prices. [While I’ve started tracking ground beef, that’s not included in this overall number, since it’s being added more than a year after the fact].
Something I didn’t know until I began researching this month’s column – it’s normal for prices to decrease in June, for a few reasons. It makes sense once you think about it. The warmer weather means that crops and livestock are recovering from the winter. The growing season has started, and some early produce from other parts of the country are becoming more available. Just as important, people’s eating habits change, and with them, their shopping habits.
As we know, bigger store chains, like the one I shop at, have leeway to play with prices. I live in an area that has a big influx of summer visitors, and I’m sure my store wants to win them over first time in with some nice prices. It doesn’t hurt that my store is right off Interstate 95 at a gateway to a region that has about 3.5 million summer visitors a year. [Full disclosure: I live in central Maine].
If you’re the kind of consumer who likes to shop around for good prices, check the stores in your area and do some calculations. Most of the chains have apps, so prices are at your fingertips and you don’t have to waste gas and time doing all that research.
Something else to consider – it’s worth a few extra pennies to support local producers at the farm stand. Particularly for produce, you’ll know what you’re getting is fresh and if it does cost more than what your store charges, you know it’s going to directly support the producer, not transport, storage and extra packaging.
That said, let’s take a look at this month’s bill.
What’s up
Only two items on my shopping list increased in price from May.
Avocados, which fluctuate a lot, were $1.09 apiece, up 9 cents from last month. Over the year-plus I’ve been keeping track they’ve ranged from 89 cents and this month’s price. We get 83% of our avocados from Mexico, and that means weather, growing season and supply disruptions can affect the price. In recent weeks, shipments from Mexico were down because of the transition to summer production, driving up U.S. avocado prices, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
California, by the way, is working on upping its avocado output, but that’s still only a small part of the market.
“The recent market movement reflects how quickly pricing can react when supply volumes change in a market dependent on a single primary origin,” says Fresh Plaza, a global fresh produce trade website.
The good news for avocados is that no matter what goes on with the price, consumers still love them. We consume almost 3 billion pounds of avocados a year in the U.S. And why not? They’re good for you. I like them in salads, on avocado toast, guacamole, and in a sandwich. In fact, I’m smitten with a sandwich I had two years ago in a little café in Oregon that I now make frequently: mashed-up avocado, lettuce, cucumber, tomato, red onion, goat cheese, balsamic vinegar and olive oil on a baguette. I’m getting hungry just thinking about it.
My half-gallon of skim milk was up to $2.42, its highest price since I began keeping track. Like avocadoes, milk prie changes month to month. That said, it’s been on the rise since April 2015, when it was $1.98 a half gallon. As we learned in this column last August, the too-hard-to-understand Federal Milk Marketing Orders set minimum prices that milk that processors must pay dairy farmers. Those standards effect the price you pay at the store, along with things like transport, storage and packaging, as well as the marketing strategy of the store you shop at.
It’s interesting that, despite an over-supply of milk in the market, prices are still going up. This is because the world is becoming obsessed with protein products, according to The Daily Herd, a dairy industry publication. Globally, consumer demand for high-protein yogurts and milk supplements is at “fever pitch,” which means, to simplify things, that demand is high for what’s available.
On top of it, the continuing war in Iran means fertilizer, feed, transport, and other costs that drive up the price of milk are high, too.
Hold on for more price fluctuation – 40% of our milk is exported to Canada and Mexico, according to the Daily Herd. The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA, formerly NAFTA) is being reviewed by all three countries next month, and who knows what’ll happen?
What’s down?
There were four nice price drops this month, but my guess is that at least two of them are summer specials that won’t stay low for long.
A six-pack of Hershey bars was $7, the lowest since the soul-shattering increase from $4.99 to $8.49 last year because of supply chain, weather and disease issues with the cocoa bean. If you like chocolate the way I do, stock up because the issues driving up chocolate prices aren’t going away. Most of the cocoa product that makes its way to the U.S. comes from West Africa, where something called black pod disease has destroyed a lot of the crop. Tariffs on the countries that grow cocoa haven’t helped.
The good news is that I’ve been checking for the predicted shrinkflation on the chocolate bars, and so far it hasn’t happened. A six-pack is still the same 9.3 ounces as it was before all this happened.
The price drop in my store goes along with its yearly summer s’mores promotion, which also includes graham crackers and marshmallows. Of course. I’m easy prey for that.
By the way, you can make a decent s’more without a grill or campfire. Some people put the whole thing in the microwave. Yuck! That makes the graham cracker too soft and melts the chocolate. But if you put the marshmallow in the microwave for 10-20 seconds by itself, it gets nice and gooey. Then assemble as usual. I like the contrast of the warm, gooey marshmallow against the cool, harder chocolate.
Cascade platinum plus 9-pack dishwasher detergent was down $1, from $5.99 to $4.99. It’s pretty much been the same price over the months, but it also had a significant price drop last June of 50 cents. The price then crept back up to its original $5.99 a few months later. I’m going to put this in the category of classic summer store loss leader.
Tomatoes on the vine were back to $2.99 a pound from the ridiculous $3.99 a pound last month. Last year’s elimination of the Tomato Suspension Agreement with Mexico, under which they’d been tariff-free, and the subsequent 17% tariff drove up prices, which peaked at the end of the winter as supply shrank. But seasons change, and we’re getting more product from warmer states. It won’t be long before the local tomatoes start showing up as well.
Mandarin oranges dropped 3 cents a pound, but prices are still historically high because of bad weather and crop disease in Florida. The size of orange also has an impact, with smaller varieties, like the mandarins that I enjoy, being in shorter supply because of less demand. Oranges were hard to find at my grocery store this week, by the way. The supply is way down as the season for them pretty much ends.
It’s always great to see prices go down, but I’m not counting on chocolate and dishwasher detergent staying there for long. I’ll keep you posted.
What we’re watching
As I promised last month, even though it’s not on my original Snapshot, I’m keeping an eye on ground beef since the USDA predicts it’ll increase 6.3% this year, and even though I don’t buy a lot of it, it’s on a lot of consumers’ shopping list.
The good news is, at least at my store, a pound of store brand fresh 85% lean ground beef is $6.79, the same as it was last week. Store brand organic, grass-fed 85% lean ground beef, wich was $10.99 a pound in May is on sale this week for $5.61 a pound.
Milk prices are another focus as fuel prices stay high and the USMCA (formerly NAFTA!) comes up for review next month, which could affect imports to Canada and Mexico.
As always, chocolate and coffee are on the watch list as well.
The Disclaimer
This monthly feature is a snapshot of a variety grocery items I regularly buy, not a scientific analysis. It’s simply a way to look at prices and what affects them.
Aside from tariffs, a lot goes into price fluctuations, including seasons, weather, store preference and store decisions. I’ve included items likely to be affected by tariffs as well as some that may not be. There are likely different prices and fluctuations for similar items at other stores, but this is a reflection of my shopping list, not a comparison-shopping exercise or a definitive picture of what certain items cost everywhere.
This is not meant to be a brand endorsement or an advertisement for Hannaford. These are just the things I buy, and that’s just where I shop.