The Soapbox: Pitfalls of prediction – for candidates and the country

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Christmas is two months away as I write this. When the holiday nears, many children, excited with anticipation, will pick up a box from underneath their tree and shake it to arrive at their best guess at what’s inside. As wishful thinking is human nature, many a child will joyously decide it’s exactly what they want and will later have to conquer their disappointment when it turns out to be a sweater. (Mom, if you’re reading this, I promise I liked the sweater you got me last Christmas.)