NEWS: U.S. consumer confidence is lower than ever. Gas prices are higher than ever. So is credit card debt. On the other hand, tariff refunds are flowing to businesses at an increasingly quick pace.

WHAT IT MEANS TO YOU: You are NOT getting a tariff refund check, but some of the businesses you patronize may pass their refund money down to you with either lower prices or prices that don’t rise as fast as they would without the refund. There’s also the possibility of a lawsuit settlement, but not any time soon.

Just so you don’t stop reading before we even get started, today we’re going to talk about some good news for consumers – tariff refunds and how you may benefit.

I know good news is scarce on the money front.

According to the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, U.S. consumer sentiment has hit a record low, with the Iran war has caused both gas prices and anxiety about the economy to skyrocket.

Credit card debt is on the rise as Americans increasingly use them to pay for necessities, like groceries. With interest rates averaging around 23% (a lot more if you’re maxed out and don’t have an awesome credit score) and more than half of Americans carrying balances month to month, that just adds to the bills to pay.

But on the other hand, tariff refunds have begun to flow to U.S. businesses. That’s has to be good news for you and me, as average U.S. consumers and money-spenders, right? After all, it’s our strained wallets that keep those businesses running.

Yes and no.

I was a guest on a recent episode of NH PBS’s “The State We’re In,” where I said that consumers likely wouldn’t see much benefit from tariff refunds. Part of my point was that none of us are going to be getting checks from the tariff refunds and the likelihood of any impact we can see will be small.

I should have elaborated that there is some good news for consumers regarding tariffs, as long as you have some patience and are in touch with reality.

First, about those checks. While President Trump had flown the idea of $2,000 refunds to middle and lower income households, gleaned from tariff revenues, that’s all over. It ended with February’s U.S. Supreme Court ruling that Trump’s “emergency” tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act were illegal and must be refunded to the businesses that paid them.

So, the short answer on tariff refunds is that the money is going to the businesses that paid the fees on imports under that act. It’s up to them if you’ll see any benefit from it.

The IEEPA tariff refund money – as much as $166 billion – is being paid out by U.S. Customs and Border Protection, which collected the tariffs. So far, about $38 billion in refunds has been processed and paid to businesses that paid tariffs on exports under the IEEPA executive order. This is despite President Trump’s not-so-veiled warning to businesses that they shouldn’t apply for the refunds, which he equated with “hating our country.”

Among the businesses applying for IEEPA tariff refunds so far are Walmart, Apple, Nike, John Deere, Home Depot, General Motors, FedEx, Target, TJX Co. (TJ Maxx), Polaris and Costco.

In all, about 330,000 businesses paid IEEPA tariffs, though applying for a refund is voluntary and it’s also complicated. This is Phase 1 of four phases. It’s for tariffs paid between Jan. 1 and when the Supreme Court brought the hammer down, and of those only unliquidated ones, which means they haven’t been finalized. Older tariffs will come in later phases.

If a business does apply and does get the money, how it uses the money is up to the business.

Walmart, for one, has been very public about the fact that it plans to use its money to lower prices. So have UPS and FedEx.

There’s political pressure to not apply for tariff refunds. Many companies, therefor, aren’t talking about it publicly, and therefore not touting any return to customers. Only about 5% of the 3,000 largest publicly traded companies in the U.S. mentioned tariff refunds in their most recent regulatory filings, Bloomberg found.

Tariff refund lawsuits

There are also at least 17 consumer lawsuits against companies that would force them to make sure consumers see a benefit from tariff refunds. Among them are Amazon, Costco, Lululemon, Nike, UPS and FedEx, to name a few. The argument the suits raise, to put it simply, is that the companies raised prices because of the tariffs. If they’re getting money back, it should go to the people who paid the higher prices.

Some of these companies made it easy to quantify losses to customers – on their receipts they had a tariff charge or they made public how much extra tariffs were costing. Shipping companies included the tariff on their invoice for overseas shipment, and those customers are getting their money back, regardless of any lawsuit, according to UPS and FedEx.

You could end up getting some money from a tariff refund consumer lawsuit if you bought something or did business over the past year with one of the companies being sued.

In most cases, if you’re found to be part of the class that qualifies, you’ll get an email that says you may be eligible for a settlement payment. Check it out and make sure it’s not a scam [more on this at the bottom}, and then follow the instructions. Don’t expect a huge payout, no matter the company.

Also, don’t expect it any time soon. The tariff refund process is a long one, and lawsuits won’t be resolved until the refunds are sorted out.

Tariff refund rollout

To make it easier for businesses that imported goods to apply for their refunds, Customs and Border Protection launched the Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries (CAPE) portal to automate the process.

We’re in Phase 1, which is only for tariffs paid since the beginning of this year that are “unliquidated,” which means CBP hasn’t finalized them. Later phases are for more complex refund requests, which means that many companies won’t be getting refunds any time soon.

The initial rollout was chaotic and caused a lot of rejections when it began in March. For instance, mega toymaker Hasbro’s $50 million in IEEPA refund claims were rejected and the company is still trying to determine if they’re going to happen.

Rejections aside, the process has reportedly smoothed out. About $3 billion was paid out in April, but that escalated to around $35 billion in May.

The fact that there’s a process for businesses to apply and they’re getting their money doesn’t mean that obvious benefits to consumers will also follow quickly.

It may take 90 days or more for a business to get its money.

Tariff refund trickle

How the tariff refund is used once it gets it is up to the business.

Apple CEO Tim Cook, for instance, said that their tariff refund money will go to “innovation and advances manufacturing.” Nothing about that says consumer rebate or lower prices.

No matter the company, any refund benefit that trickles down to consumers may also be lost once shareholders are appeased and higher expenses for things like transportation, packaging and other fuel-based and supply chain expense increases because of the Iran war are absorbed.

Many companies took the hit with the tariffs, or at least part of it, and didn’t pass the full costs on to consumers. That means their margins were narrower and the tariff refunds are a chance to make that money back.

In a lot of cases, the best-case scenario may be that the tariff refund keeps prices stabilized or from rising even higher than they would without them.

Small businesses may find that the red tape involved in applying for the refund ends up being more of a headache than it’s worth. The returns aren’t dollar-for-dollar after administrative and other costs, so, the bigger the business and their volume of imported products, the more likely consumers are to see a return trickle down to them.

Tariff refund consumer wins

This was going to be good news, right? So let’s take a look at which companies have come right out and said they’re going to get that money back to their customers and how they said they’re going to do it. Or even hinted at it vaguely. Keep in mind that it’s easy for a business to announce something, but the proof is in the pudding.

The ones that are definite are shipping company rebates to customers that used them as “importer of record” to get goods from overseas. The tariff fees to customers were documented, and UPS and FedEx already have the process in place to return the money.

Regular domestic customers of those companies will likely not see lower prices or any other benefit, though.

As the tariff refund phases roll out, more retail companies will likely get on board with price decreases or special pricing. Many are still figuring out what their strategy should be.

So far, here are the businesses that have publicly said what they’ll do, or hinted at it:

Walmart: Shoppers should expect to see the tariff refunds have an impact on prices, including for gas at Walmarts with fuel pumps. “We think that the single best return that we can have on a dollar of capital right now is to investment in the customer, invest in price,” CFO John David Rainey said last week.

Costco: Members will see a tariff benefit through “lower prices and better values,” CEO Ron Vachris said in March.

Home Depot: Refunds should provide “significant offsets” to the higher fuel and transportation costs the company is paying, CFO Richard McPhail said last week. Presumably, that will help regulate prices for shoppers there.

UPS, FedEx, DHL: Shipping companies show tariff costs for imports on invoices, so it’s an easy process to get them to the customers who paid them. If you have a small business that used either company to ship overseas during the Phase 1 tariff refund window, you should see some money coming back. Both UPS and FedEx have said that they will refund tariffs charged on shipments for customers for which they were the importer of record. For more information on UPS, check out their page on the topic and for FedEx, check out their FAQs. DHL also has a page on the topic.

ELF Beauty: The cosmetics company, which raised most prices by $1 last August because of tariffs, said it is cutting prices now that it’ll get tariff refunds.

Kroger: The grocery store chain said it is cutting prices on thousands of items with its tariff refunds. This is not relevant to anyone in New England, since there are no Kroger stores here, but if you’re traveling to one of the 35 states that does have a Kroger, you may benefit.

Scam of the Month

A little while ago, shortly after I typed the word “Costco,” I got a text that was purportedly a survey about Costco membership and Trump policies. Whoa. I just got another one after I typed that sentence.

I’ve never shopped at Costco and have never gotten a text related to the store. I’m sure the whole thing was just a coincidence. Or not. Either way, it’s a good reminder that we’re in an ever-evolving information harvesting universe, and to be skeptical of every single communication you get.

This is especially true of trending topics. The scammers will jump on anything to grift your heard-earned money out of you.

You’re now an expert on tariff returns, after reading this column, but the scammers don’t know that. Keep an eye out for texts or emails announcing you’re getting a “tariff rebate,” “tariff refund,” or “tariff check.”

Don’t click on any links, even out of curiosity. Delete and report as spam.

Be particularly aware of any checks claiming to be a tariff refund or rebate that may arrive in the mail. Or your loved ones’ mail. They’ll ask you to wire money, or send a gift card or bit coin or some other thing as a processing fee. Don’t do it! The checks are fraudulent and you’ll end up getting ripped off.

Phone call from the IRS or other government agency purporting to have some tariff refund money for you? Hang up. Don’t even engage. No one is calling your or anyone else you know with tariff money.

All that said, there are a lot of lawsuit settlements going around out there, and there may be some in the future related to tariff returns. There are at least 17 companies being sued by consumers over tariff price hikes.

I probably get a lawsuit settlement check about once a year now from things I didn’t even know where lawsuits. Usually they’re for something like $2.37, but I got one for $158 from Facebook, something to do with videos, two years ago. In the past two years, I’ve also gotten them from Forbes, a bank that I once had a loan from, Verizon, and a few others.

Often these start with an opt-in email. But how do you tell the difference between a legitimate case that you may be a party in, and one that is a scam?

If you get a settlement email, to verify that it’s the real thing:

Do not click on a link, call the number or scan a QR code.
Google the case name of the settlement. Usually you can find a legitimate news story, or many, online about it.
Visit classaction.org or the FTC refund programs page to look it up.
Often settlement letters are from a law firm. Look up the law firm to see if it’s legit. DO NOT click on any link provided by the law firm until you’ve determined it’s legit.
You can check court records and find cases on PACER.com.
They may have a phone number to call, or email address. Don’t trust that to check it out. Scammers are great at pretending they’re someone they’re not. Check it out independently.

As with all texts and emails, red flags that it’s a scam include:

They want money. There’s no fee, it doesn’t cost money, to join a legitimate settlement or claim.
They want your Social Security number, banking account numbers or passwords.
They want you to do something right away, or give you a fast deadline, like 48 hours. No settlement will have you make a decision that fast.
They threaten you with legal action or fines.
There are typos, odd language, bad punctuation or poor formatting.

As AI becomes more sophisticated, so do scammers. It was pretty standard for scams to look sketchy in the very recent past. Nowadays, they look more real. It’s worth the time and effort to make sure that what you’re seeing is the real thing before you make a click that you’re going to regret.

Scam of the Month II

It’s that time of year again. Parties and reunions may be clogging your calendar. So many that you can’t keep track. That’s why it’s so easy to click on an email that looks like it’s from your sister or a cousin or former coworker with the subject line “June reunion” or “June party.”

Sometimes these cleverly look like they’re a reply to something, so your overloaded brain assumes it’s an email chain you’re part of that you can’t remember right now.

Sometimes they look like invitations from Punchbowl, Evite or some other digital invitation service.

Don’t take the bait.

Delete and mark as spam.

They’re either fishing for your information or providing a link that will load some malware on your computer.

I’m getting at least a couple reunion ones a day. I don’t know if this is because AI has figured out my extended family has a reunion going on and is taking advantage, or if I’m just susceptible to this type of scam outreach. I delete and move on.

If you’re not sure, separately email the person who purportedly sent the evite or email and ask them if they sent it.